Prediction Markets: The Dangerous Evolution of Online Betting.
Malachi B.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets currently is the next step of gambling where you’re not just betting on touchdowns but on anything you could ever think of from tv shows to streamers to genocide. America’s newest get rich quick scheme is putting the little money you have on whether bombs will drop in Lebanon or if there will be boots on the ground in Iran. These companies try to normalize themselves through commercials, internet memes, and publicity stunts like Polymarket’s free grocery store in New York.
But at what cost does this normalization come?
Prediction markets capitalize off the destruction of war and other world events. As the working class worries about the economy and gas prices, prediction markets give them a way to make money on the things that they think they know. They can bet on gas prices rising or that a ceasefire won’t be agreed on. While making a few bucks here and there, at first it seems harmless, but it also creates detachment and it creates a game out of human lives. Here, human lives abroad could be considered bargaining chips and depending on the chips location, they could mean even less. With prediction markets, it’s appears to be easier for a government to manufacture consent for invasions and genocide for better odds.
Political implications aside, gambling addictions already make people lose themselves and destroy families, but when you add the possible loss of morals and humanity, it becomes more dangerous. In some cases of gambling addiction, it starts with common games, such as Poker or Roulette but as the addiction grows it can worsen as some might bet on extreme games like dog fights or street racing.
The questionable morality doesn’t stop at politics. The NBA, who’ve had multiple players and coaches arrested in gambling scandals last year, have failed to draw a hard line against prediction markets. Besides their constant gambling advertisements, the players in the league have ties to the platforms as well.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Milwaukee Bucks forward and former Most Valuable Player, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Kalshi shareholder and other NBA and WNBA stars have similar partnerships and investments. NBA commissioner Adam Silver’s inconsistent and seemingly contradictory rule set when it comes to gambling shows the power of the dollar and prediction markets prevails over fairness.
Raptors forward Jontay Porter was banned from the league for gambling on his own games, but Antetokounmpo can profit from people betting on every single aspect of the league and more? If you were Porter, you wouldn’t see much of a difference between your offenses where you are banned as Antetokounmpo faces zero pushback from the league’s policies.
Also in the sports world, Kalshi and Polymarket pay popular social media accounts to promote certain agendas. As this continues, there is nothing stopping them from putting money toward advertising an idea they know is likely to create a higher percentage of losing bets while creating an illusion of choice and raking profits.
This also extends to the entertainment industry. During Oscar season, they did the same, sponsoring popular film accounts and encouraging betting on the winners of the night.
The manipulation isn’t one-sided either. With insider trading more accessible than ever, you can now bet on almost anything or anyone, meaning more people have the connections that can lead them to win big—a political advisor, an entertainment insider, or a friend of a popular streamer can help them win by betting on events in their world, events they may even influence themselves.
The more taboo bets, like the color of Gatorade at the Super Bowl, are becoming normalized in this new age of gambling addiction. Constant advertising, partnerships with Instagram and X accounts, and co-signs from popular NBA stars are likely to encourage younger generations to see this behavior as normal and to coerce them into betting on these apps as well.
This begs the question:
Hantavirus Odds - Polymarket
Can seemingly harmless sports betting lead to more harmful forms of gambling involving human lives?
Are we raising a generation that will be socialized to profit directly from the misfortunes of others? Could this be the start of THE RUNNING MAN?
Is there any legislation that can slow this momentum, or must gambling be banned nationally to create a more meaningful change?
What happens when someone doesn’t get a kick out of betting on human lives and wants to up the stakes, what more depraved action could they get into, how much worse can it get (See above)?
Do we really want gambling to go this far? it seems to be happening already. If markets such as these continue to profit and go without legislation, just as the gambling addict can become more depraved, the prediction markets and its users will as well. No corner of the earth will go untouched, and no crime will be too far….all for better odds.
