Houston Rockets: Still Ready W/O Freddy?
With the NBA season officially under way and Fred VanVleet’s injury being months removed, the Houston Rockets’ hopes couldn’t be more up in the air. Even with a motivated superstar in Kevin Durant, a hungry young core, and a gritty veteran supporting cast, the absence of an all-star level point guard may be too much to adapt from. VanVleet has been a core part of Houston’s retooling that led them to a top 3 seed last season and put them in the position to trade for Durant this offseason. The past two seasons with the Rockets he’s averaged 15.9 points per game, 6.9 assists per game and has been shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc. VanVleet’s importance to this team goes far beyond the stat sheet though. His importance even goes beyond his veteran leadership and big-time playoff experience now that players like Durant, Clint Capela, and Dorian Finney-Smith are on the roster to provide more than enough of that. VanVleet’s true point guard capabilities may have been the glue that held together Houston’s NBA finals hopes.
One of the biggest concerns of the Rockets is their sustainable ball handling, even a more perimeter player like Amen Thompson has turnover troubles and discipline issues taking the ball up the court. Even with great shooters like Durant and Finney-Smith, a lack of a good perimeter ball handler can limit a team’s floor spacing and lowers the offensive ceiling. Durant has great handles in isolation and starting power forward Alperen Sengun can be a playmaking hub at the top of the key but that simply won’t be enough, especially come playoff time.
The opening night solution was Amen Thompson at point guard with a double big lineup with Sengun and Steven Adams. A true test to see how poor the ball handling and turnover issues would be throughout the season, especially against the reigning champions and one of the best defenses of all time coming from the OKC Thunder. The opening night opponent may have been the reason for this lineup, using 6’11 Sengun as a forward and starting the bruiser Adams may be the combat OKC’s own double big lineups.
An alternative to the Amen Thompson experience would be former 3rd overall pick sophomore, Reed Sheppard. Sheppard has shown promise in limited minutes last year and in this year’s preseason. His ceiling is the perfect VanVleet replacement, someone who can run the floor, get a bucket on his own and shoot the three ball at a high clip. Given some time, his defensive aggression could be developed to be even better than VanVleet.
SideNote: His floor is another small guard who can’t find his groove in the big leagues, a spot up shooter who can’t playmake at a high level to justify running at the one and can’t guard or get to rim enough to run at the 2. Evaluating young players that haven’t gotten enough real playing time is always a tough task, but Sheppard has shown flashes of the good and the bad.
Head Coach Ime Udoka’s hesitancy to start him at point guard to open the season could be worrying but time will only tell what he makes of the opportunities he gets in the long run.
An underrated VanVleet replacement, not to start or finish games but to run complete lineups throughout the season, combo guard Aaron Holiday. Entering his third year as a Rocket, Holiday has been someone who’s been reliable to step up in the regular season especially in place of an injured player. He’s not someone who can lead the team all season, but he will make the most of what of the play time he gets and fit into his role. The past two seasons, in games where he plays 20+ minutes, he averaged 12.5 ppg and shoots 50/40/90. With VanVleet out, he very well may be the best ball handler on the roster and even if he can’t run the offense like VanVleet, he can keep the floor spaced and hit open shots. When it comes to VanVleet replacements on the roster, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention 4th year JD Davison who had an excellent preseason and is earning himself regular season guard minutes.
Now when it comes to off the team alternatives such as free agents like Spencer Dinwiddie, or via trade, things get a little complicated. While it doesn’t seem like general manager Rafael Stone or Udoka are looking for alternatives off the team, it could be either because they are satisfied with the current roster or because making a trade or signing is easier said than done.
The only players they can trade are players they see as untouchable like Thompson and Durant. And if they do make a trade, they can’t take on any more salary than they already have per the NBA first apron rules.
NBA teams do get a Disable Player Exception when a player on their team is out for the season but if the Rockets use this, it would still take them over the salary cap. Free agents aren’t an option unless they make a trade for less salary than they already have. The one player who isn’t seen as untouchable, and who can be traded, and may be in weird standing with the front office is forward Tari Eason who failed to agree on an extension with Houston this off-season (with a questionable injury).
A long, wing heavy team like the Rockets may see a young, positive defender with offensive potential like Eason as expendable if they grow desperate at the point guard. The Rockets won’t give up on this team too easy and they are still expected to be good without VanVleet so if any moves do happen, don’t expect it to be any time soon.
